SHRIRAM CITY UNION FINANCE

Background

Shriram City Union Finance (Shriram City) established in 1986, is part of the nearly four decade-old Shriram Group, and has its origins from the needs of the Chit Funds customers. The company started operations with truck financing. In October 29, 1988, the company became a public limited company and renamed as Shriram Hire Purchase Finance Ltd. In March 1990, City Union Bank Ltd. acquired shareholding 200,000 shares at par. Consequently, the name of the company was changed to Shriram City Union Finance Ltd. The company registered as a deposit taking asset financing NBFC with RBI and went public in 1994.

Prior to 2002, the company was exclusively engaged in transport finance with special emphasis on financing pre-owned commercial vehicles to small road transport operators. In 2002, the company discontinued the truck financing business (except for trucks > 10 year old) as that business was consolidated in its sister concern (viz. Shriram Transport Finance Ltd) and started as a separate business unit in year 2002 as Shriram City Union Finance Ltd.  Listed on BSE in 2003.

Today Shriram City offerings comprise finance for Two Wheelers and Three Wheelers, Four Wheeler Finance (both new and pre-owned passenger and commercial vehicles), Personal Loans, Small Business Loans, and Loan against Gold. This has made Shriram City the only NBFC to offer such a wide range of products under one roof.

Vision: Serving the under-served. Creating value at the bottom of the pyramid.


Main Products/Segments

  • Niche Diversified Product Portfolio
As on Sep 2013 MSME Loans Gold Loans 2 Wh Loans Auto Loans Personal Loans
Inception Dec 2005 Oct 2006 Dec 2002 Dec 2005 Jan 2006
% Loan Book  49% 22% 15% 10% 4%
Avg Yield 18-22% 14-18% 24-26% 22-24% 24-27%
Avg Ticket size 700,000 40,000 35,000 150,000 75,000
Avg Loan to Value NA 55% 70% 60% NA
Branches offering  493 (1021)  714 (1021)  832 (1021)  359 (1021)  396 (1021)
Gross NPA  1.4%  1.6%  3.8%  3.7%  4.8%
Net NPA  0.3%  1.4%  0.8%  0.4%  0.0%

Source: Company, CRISIL

  • Branch Network – 1021 Total branches, 724 Owned Branches, 297 Shared Locations
  • Geographic Concentration – AP [48%], TN [32%], MH [9%], KN [2%], OTHERS [9%]
  • Group Customer Base – ~4 Mn Chit Fund customers; 95% of MSME customers referred by Shriram Chits

Main Markets/Customers

  • Strong Positioning for the Niche Addressable Under-penetrated Market – primarily the Self-Employed – without formal credit history and/or future cash flow signature – primarily feeding-off the Chit Business and concentrated in AP, TN, MH – hugely scalable – completely protected (?) market – may continue to grow nicely
    • MSME Loans, Gold Loans, 2 Wh Loans and Personal Loans
  • A piece of the MSME Non-Chit action – primarily concentrated in North India – primarily leveraging regular credit worthy customers with credit history and adequate documents – Max 1 Cr loans – Avg Ticket size 20-25 lakhs – may see cautious growth – as this is untested market/untested models
  • Nascent Niche presence in the under-penetrated Housing Finance segment – focusing on Tier 2 & Tier 3 Cities and the under-banked – Avg ticket size 10 lakhs – insignificant currently, but growing rapidly – may become significant within 4-5 years

Bullish Viewpoints

As on Sep 2013/ Jan 2014 SCUF SCUF
(Dec ’13)
SHTF Chola Sundaram MMFS Bajaj Finance
Size (AUM) 15800  14937 49700 19000 17600 27900 17100 Small
Years in Business
(Effectively)
28 (11) 28 (11) 35 36 60 23 27 SHTF, MMFS have also grown AUM fast
Capital Adequacy 23.3%  24.26% 19.9% 17.1% 17.7% 19.1% 20.9% Industry best
3Yr Earnings CAGR  45%  45%  19%  74%  20%  39%  58% Robust
Cost to Income 37%  38.68% 26% 50% 37% 33% 45% Industry Median
Cost of Funds 12.6%  11.74 9.8% 10.6% 10.6% 9.9% 10.3% Industry Highest
Margins 11.2%  12.35% 7.0% 7.6% 8.4% 9.4% 12.1% One of Industry highest
Yield 22.1%  21.19% 16.3% 15.4% 17.7% 16.4% 20.7% Industry best by far
 RoA  3.2%  3.36%  2.9%  2%  3%  3.4%  3.6% One of Industry highest
 P/B  2.2  1.8  1.5  2.4  3.05  1.6
 P/E  12.7  10.37  10.6  15.14  14.35  11.24
  • Huge under-penetration in Target customer base – With only 9-10% penetration of the ~4Mn Shriram Chit Customer base, there is huge headroom to grow in its niche with virtually no competition
  • Improving Product Mix – With Gold Loan share coming down (expected to stay within ~20-25%), Product Mix decisively tilting towards higher tenure, higher yields
  • Strong Growth Drivers – Deeper Product Penetration into existing branches especially in high-yielding MSME, 2wheeler and Personal Loans will keep driving growth.
  • Dominant position in MSME Loans – As per a Frost & Sullivan study SCUF share in overall MSME Loans disbursals in FY11 was a dominant 53%. Shriram City concentrates on ticket sizes comprising Very Small Loans (sub Rs. 1 Lac), Small Loans (Rs. 1 Lac – Rs. 10 Lacs) and Medium Loans (Rs. 10 Lacs – Rs. 50 Lacs), with the bulk of its MSME book constituting Small Loans – 42% market share as per 2013 AR.
  • High Capital Adequacy – With the recent Capital Infusion, CAR at ~23% is the highest in the industry. Tier I Capital is at a comfortable~18%. This should be adequate to fund growth for next few years
  • High growth trajectory -While FY14E AUM growth will be muted – partly due to Loan Book recast and partly due to disruption in normal business in AP due to Telengana protests, next 2-3 years could see 25% CAGR growth
  • High Yields look sustainable – SCUF has the highest yield among similar NBFCs at ~22%. Given improving Product mix, yields likely to stay high
  • Operating Costs likely to come down – SCUF Cost to Income ratios had been climbing up mostly due to Employee expenses shooting up over last 3 years – from ~6% of Expenses in FY11 to over 13% in FY13. This was largely due to integration of Shriram Chit Employees into its fold (From ~3000 to just over 19000 in 2QFY14). With the process getting completed and conservative branch expansion targets hereon, this is likely to stabilise and head downwards in next 2-3 years
  • Valuations – Given the strong positioning in its niche, SCUF appears to be trading at reasonably attractive 2.2x P/B valuations (CMP 1030)

Bearish Viewpoints

  • Concentration of business in AP & TN – 80% of business currently comes from these 2 states with AP (48%) and TN (32%). Any disturbances and/or policy change in the key states could impact business significantly. The ongoing Telengana issue and protests had seen disruption in normal business activity and had affected disbursements to MSME customers. The impending bifurcation of AP and likely protests means SCUF remains vulnerable to disruptions again – and that may impact growth
  • Asset Quality seemingly deteriorating (Advancing recognition Norms)
SCUF SHTF Chola Sundaram MMFS Bajaj Finance
GNPA 2.4 3.2 1.0 1.0 3.0 1.5
Recognition Norm 150d 180d  180d 120d 150d 90d
  • SCUF’s NPA’s are on the higher side. This should also be seen from the context of significant share of Gold Loans (with low NPAs) in Loan Book. However to be fair, Recognition norm at 150d is conservative and keeping ahead of RBI stipulations/timeline.
  • Advancing Recognition Norms/Standards Asset Provisioning may be raised – As per Usha Thorat Committee DRAFT Guidelines, NBFCs may have to move to 120-day NPA recognition norm from April 1, 2014 and 90-day norm from April 1, 2015. Also Standard Asset provisioning may be raised to 0.40% from 0.25% effective March 31, 2014. This may lead to higher costs on provisioning impacting earnings. Eventual write-offs though could be lower (nature of customers/business). As per Management, in the entire 28 years history actual delinquency is <1-1.5%.
  • Gold Loan remains a significant portion of Loan Book. Gold price volatility may impact growth possibilities

Barriers to entry

  • Chit Model – 90% of the current business/addressable market is mostly insulated from competition. For its target segments a Shriram Chit customer will go out of the group only if SCUF is unable to meet the customer requirement
  • Strong Brand Equity – “Shriram Brand” has high brand equity within its target segment – leading to low spend on advertising in both existing and new geographies

Interesting Viewpoints

  • Leveraging/Piggy-Riding on parent/group – Shriram City Union completely leverages the groups strengths – Customers, Database, home-grown systems and processes for the self-employed, and IT systems. Expansion to newer geographies can be incrementally calibrated by piggy-riding on group ecos-system and branch network, with minimal capital outlay
  • Regulator view of NBFCs turning favourable? – Even 2 years back regulatory risk may have been cited as a key risk for NBFC businesses. However of late RBI is seen to be shifting its hawkish stance (as evidenced in say the recent Comprehensive Financial Services for Small Businesses and Low Income Households Report chaired by Nachiket Mor, Central Board Member, RBI) and acknowledging the key role and value-added contribution that NBFCs could make towards financial inclusion in India. Also recent 23 Jan 2014 Speech Non-Banking Finance Companies: Game Changers, by P. Vijaya Bhaskar, Executive Director, RBI
  • Only 7% of MSMEs seek external sources of credit, the rest managing with self-financing or with funding from informal sources. MSMEs have a total finance demand of Rs. 32.5 trillion, of which only 36% is widely considered as addressable by financial institutions. The remaining 64%, ordinarily considered unviable because of inadequate/poor credit profiles, preference for debt from informal sources, reliance on self-financing etc. presents a rich potential for NBFCs if adequate safeguards can be built in to protect asset quality[Source: Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, Company AR, MSME FInance in India IFC Report]
  • Shriram City for the most part caters to the Micro Enterprises segment. Their research indicates that in the event of the GDP growing between 4% – 5%, the MSME sector should see a long term growth of between 15% – 20%. [Source Company AR]
  • Shriram City Housing Finance – Incorporated as a fully owned subsidiary in Nov 2010. Currently 76.5% owned by Shriram City and 23.5% by Valiant partners. Focusing on Tier 2&3 cities and the under-banked with average ticket size of 10 lakhs, this business is at a nascent stage with Asset size of ~340 Cr as on Sep 2013. Growing rapidly with disbursements crossing ~215 Cr in Sep 2013 up from 40 Cr in Sep 2012 – a building block being laid for future disproportionate growth?

Disclosure(s)

Donald Francis: More than 5% of Portfolio in the Company; Holding for more than 6 months


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